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South Asian Research Journal of Agriculture and Fisheries (SARJAF)
Volume-2 | Issue-04
Original Research Article
Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Agricultural Development in Nigeria (1981-2016)
Akinniran, Taiwo Nuraeni and Osadare, Bukunmi Sarah
Published : Aug. 23, 2020
DOI : 10.36346/sarjaf.2020.v02i04.008
Abstract
This study examines the effect of macroeconomics variables on agricultural development in Nigeria between 1981-2016. To achieve the research objective Secondary data obtained from the Central Bank Statistical bulletin, and Food and Agricultural Organization were used for the study. Augmented Dickey Fuller unit root test and co-integration test were employed to analyse the data collected. The ADF test conducted on the variables showed that while government expenditure on agriculture was stationary at level, agricultural GDP, credit to agricultural sector, external debt, crude oil price, exchange rate, and interest rate were however stationary at first difference. The Engel Granger test makes fewer distribution assumptions and does not allow the identification of the number of co-integration vectors. The result of the error correlation model showed that in the long run, CAS (Credit to the Agricultural Sector) and Ex. Rate (Exchange Rate) exerted significant positive influence on agricultural development while Ex. Debt (External Debt), COP (Crude Oil Price), Gov. Exp (Government Expenditure on Agriculture) and IR (Interest Rate) failed to significantly explain the variation in agricultural development in Nigeria during the period under investigation. This can be due to inappropriate priority settings to profligate living instead of food production through to the masses by the government, implying that the government has been indulging in deficit financing over the years resulting in an increase in the rate of inflation. This again will lead to an increase in input prices, thereby affecting the output of the agricultural sector. It is therefore concluded that Credit to the Agricultural Sector (i.e. proper funding) and Exchange Rate are indispensable for sustained agricultural development in Nigeria.

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