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South Asian Research Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences (SARJHSS)
Volume-3 | Issue-05
Original Research Article
Exchange Rate and Stock Market Interactions in Nigeria: An ARDL Analysis
Wosu Chidi, Lawrence Blessing Aturuchi
Published : Oct. 1, 2021
DOI : 10.36346/sarjhss.2021.v03i05.010
Abstract
The study investigates the link between exchange rate and stock market performance in Nigeria. The main spur is to empirically determine if exchange rate proxies have the capacity to enhance stock market performance. The study utilized annual data from 1980-2020 and the variables are exchange rate, inflation rate and interest rate. The study employed Unit Root test for stationarity, Auto regressive distributed lags (ARDL) to Co-integration test and ECM test to determine the speed of adjustment from the short to its long run equilibrium and looked at the trends analysis of the data in the model. Furthermore, stability test was carried out to evaluate the variables. The result shows that variables are integrated of order 1(1) thereby establishing that the variables are co-integrated. The ECM (t-1) value of -19 per cent shows that it is rightly signed and is able to correct, adjust and tie the short run dynamics with the long run equilibrium. The study also discovers in addition some level of structural stability in the model using Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) test. The study concludes that exchange rate enhances stock market performance in the long run and recommends a strong manufacturing sector that produces for export so as to strengthen the Naira against any currencies of the world.

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